• We've messed up the climate

What exactly is going on?
The recent global eruption of abnormally turbulent climate behaviour (heat, precipitation, storms) makes one fact crystal clear: We've messed up the climate. Totally ruined it. And so: we've definitively lost control of both climate and all the primary living conditions it shapes.
There is no stopping this. It spits in our faces. We have gambled away the gentle and stable nature of our climate. Everything is going to suffer. From now on, we are going to lose more and more on growability of crops and trees, on health and productivity of what is alive and needs to reproduce (fish, wildlife, micro-life), on livable territory (deltas, coasts, countries), on stability of weather patterns and seasons.

But did we ever have control?
No, of course not. It was just that all those (mostly engineers and their entourage) who for decades have refused to listen to other insights, have always imagined (and trumpeted) that they could easily rock this bitch, build a cage for it. Other insights? Yes, those of people with a lot of outdoor experience who spotted this cascade of climate misery rapidly coming from the very beginning, and immediately realised that the forces that would be unleashed via disrupted climate dynamics would be far too powerful and destructive to get cushioned via gradual transition to clean (so-called!) energy.

• Mitigation is dead

And so: mitigation is dead. James Hansen already declared something like this after the cruel summer of 2023 but the extent to which climate engineers are recently anstuffing national climate mitigation plans with CO2 removal technologies as an emergency brake is more than revealing. And yes of course, now it dawns on them that mitigation is becoming a fiasco, their attention immediately goes to the next stage of technological megalomania, and not to radical socio-economic interventions (such as, for example, an individual carbon budget, or a worldwide lockdown). Because there is plenty of money to be made from the development of CO2 capture and storage in the near future. Plus it will keep the energy-addicted mob happy for the time being, and that's an important prospect – see the reasons behind Tony Blair's recent turn to CO2-removal – to entice politicians to invest heavily in this new hype (escape).

• Forecasts and outlooks are biased

For example, the IEA suspects every year that CO2 emissions due to fossil fuel use will soon cap. But that presumption provides zero predictive validity as to how radiation forcing will develop. Because?

• They themselves note that any reduction gains from renewables so far have been immediately negated by volume increases in aviation, shipping, automobile traffic, armies, internet, and cooling.
• They rely on calculated emissions, while the past has proven that they are missing a lot of emissions on their radar such as: subterranean coal and peat fires; fugitive emissions (e.g. natural gas flaring at gas and oil production facilities) and hydroelectricity emissions; forest fires, free waste burning, and directed clean burning.
• They do not address the long-term degradation of natural CO2 uptake systems.
• Their calculated CO2 emissions from fossil may not be growing that fast (or hard enough) for a while, but methane and nitrogen oxide are rising fast, plus there are major simultaneous uncertainties at play around the effects of warmer seas, cloud formation and cover, contrails, and the ozone layer.

This way of explaining what is going on by the IEA, like that of the IPCC and other advisory and research bodies run by the well-to-do class in rich countries, falls into the category of "gentle wishful thinking" with which we have been led towards the ravine for 30 years now. Don't panic, just keep consuming, driving , and flying; this is going to be all right! That is the message behind it. And the desire of the money powers behind them!! Because most existing capital resides in fossil fuel production plants and in construction plants of fossil fuel using (mostly transport) devices, and all that industrial infrastructure has to last at least another 10 years.

• Annual CO2-increase continues to rise

Finally, let's take a look at what really matters. Namely, the annual increase in C02 concentration in the atmosphere. Which increased over the past 30 years from 1 ppm to 2.5 ppm per year. And that annual increase does not budge! Worse, it seems to be rising: during 2024 it was 3.75 ppm.

Rahmstorf S.: "die Emissionen müssen jetzt in einen steilen Sinkflug übergehen und bis 2030 halbiert werden. Und bis jetzt sinken sie ja nicht mal!"

In short: All expansion decisions under the banner of green growth or business-as-usual get more and more blood on their hands, and can be booked as criminal.